Markets

Ukraine: What's Next?

Some perspective on the grim situation in Ukraine and what could happen in markets.

(Need a break from it? Scroll down to the P.S.)

The invasion of Ukraine is a serious and scary escalation in tensions between Russia, Europe, and the United States.

Before we dive in to what it could mean, let's take a moment to think about the many folks who are suffering and dying as well as the ordinary Russians who will suffer from sanctions, instability, and economic damage. I hope and pray that diplomacy can end this crisis for all our sakes.

Let's talk about some possible implications for markets and our economy.

Given Ukraine's critical pipelines and Western sanctions on Russia, the crisis may lead to higher energy prices, which will trickle down to higher pump and heating fuel costs.(1) Sustained price increases could hamper the Federal Reserve's effort to control inflation, so we're keeping an eye on that as well.

What could happen in markets? Higher than average volatility, as we've already experienced, is very likely. Another correction (or even a bear market) is definitely possible.

What does history teach us about market reactions to geopolitical shocks?

A Wild Ride

Markets cratered this week, heading into correction territory, and then bounced right back.1 And then continued bucking and kicking the next day. Weird, right?

Not really. These things happen pretty regularly when investors get jittery. Let’s talk about what’s going on. (Scroll to the end if you just want my soothing takeaways.)

What led to the giant selloff?

A few things: Fears around the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and what rapidly removing support could do to markets and the economy. (2) Inflation worries (it's at a 40-year high). (3) Tech earnings. (4) A potential hot war in Ukraine. (5)

Bottom line: markets are being driven by fear, anxiety, and uncertainty.

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Truths About Portfolio Losses

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Whenever markets turn negative, folks often ask: should I get out of the market? Should I sell? 

In this quick video, I drop some truths about what you can do when your portfolio is dropping. Truths that you may not see in the headlines. Cheers!

Omicron: Market Unknowns (and some uplifting news!)

Let’s talk about omicron. (If you’d rather not, scroll right down to the P.S. for something beautiful!)

Since the first known cases of COVID-19 were detected in China, we've seen a number of notable mutations as the virus moved across the world. Some, like beta and gamma, didn’t end up being a huge deal.(1) Others, like delta, spread rapidly and caused new waves of infection. Now we have another variant on our hands: omicron. And it could be a serious one.