Economy

Hard or Soft Landing? Watch the Sahm Rule

Is a zombie recession coming? By that, I mean that renewed fears of a "hard landing" recession have emerged from the grave and are walking among us. Many analysts were convinced that the U.S. economy could achieve a coveted “soft landing,” but they might be overly optimistic.

What makes some economists worry about a recession?

Shifting Narratives

Markets have been more volatile lately. What’s going on?

Let’s take a quick look at the factors that are influencing markets right now.

1. The bull market narrative has shifted

For months, investors have told a “Goldilocks” story of a strong economy, tamed inflation, and interest rates that were soon to drop. However, stronger-than-expected economic data and sticky inflation have now complicated the story, and investors have become wary.

Q1 2024: Now What?

What conclusions should we draw from a high-flying first quarter?

Investors are feeling optimistic about 2024.

With the S&P 500 closing its fifth straight month of gains, it's clear that the bull market has legs. (6)

We can also see that the rally is broadening beyond a small number of technology stocks as investors build confidence in the economy. (7)

Broader confidence in company growth potential is great news for investors as it makes the rally less vulnerable to the individual fortunes of a few high-flying stocks.

Record Highs, Rates, and Baltimore

The stock market rocketed to new record highs after the latest Federal Reserve meeting. (1)

Will markets continue to rise?

Will stocks take a dive after the recent record highs? What could the Baltimore bridge collapse mean for the economy? Let’s discuss.

Why are stocks on such a tear?

Despite some bumps in the road, markets have been on an extended rally that has gone on for months, notching new record highs along the way. (1)